瑞銀：債券「南向通」對港交所收入未有實質影響 長期關注產品機會

<匯港通訊> 金管局及人行昨公布，債券通「南向通」將會在9月24日開通。

瑞銀發表研究報告表示，雖然債券通「南向通」在初始階段有投資額度和投資者資格要求，但看到長期擴大投資者資格和投資額度的潛力。雖然不預計債券通「南向通」將對港交所(00388)近期收入產生重大的實質影響，「北向通」債券收入貢獻仍少於1% 的貢獻。但認為債券通「南向通」的推出，長期應關注產品機會，是一個將其產品套件進一步擴展至固定收益和貨幣 (FIC) 相關的好機會，以滿足投資者的風險管理需求，是港交所的長期催化劑。

該行將港交所(00388)維持「買入」評級，因為相信港交所與內地互聯互通戰略和收入多元化將繼續支撐增長。(EC)

While there are investment quota and requirements on investor eligibility in
initial phase, we see room for these to be relaxed in longer term. Although we do not
expect major near term revenue impact to HKEX (northbound bond connect revenue still
<1% contribution), we see the launch of southbound bond connect an opportunity for
HKEX to further expand its product suite to fixed income and currency (FIC) related
derivatives to meet investors’ risk management demand, a long term catalyst for HKEX.
We maintain our Buy rating as we believe HKEX’s strategy on China connectivity and
revenue diversification will continue to underpin growth, which does not look fully
priced in.
A new channel to access overseas bonds
According to announcement, the southbound Bond Connect allows eligible mainland
Chinese investors to invest in overseas bonds that are traded in HK, with designated
market makers by HKMA. Initial investors include part of the Class I bank type market
makers in China, QDII and RQDII, most of which are already allowed to trade overseas
bond – but the new channel should provide additional flexibility. Initial quota is set at
Rmb20bn net outflow daily and Rmb500bn annually. Based on past experience on stock
connect, we see potential of expansion of investor eligibility and investment quota in
long term. We believe this to help support asset deployment for onshore financial
institutions, e.g. sourcing long tenure bonds for asset/liability management for insurers.
Impact on HKEX: focus should be on product opportunities in longer term
As a reference, northbound Bond Connect has demonstrated strong increase in trading
volume since launch with an ADT of over Rmb20-30bn in recent months vs. Rmb2-3bn
in the beginning. Notably, northbound investors now hold around Rmb1.1trn China
domestic bonds, represents 29% of total foreign holdings of onshore bond, suggesting
the connect program provides an effective investment channel for overseas investors.
Having said that, we estimate that direct revenue contribution from northbound bond
connect is still less than 1% (or accretion from southbound bond connect will unlikely be material, we believe potential
launch of more FIC-related risk management tools serves as longer term catalysts for
HKEX. We believe the connectivity between China and global capital markets will
continue to drive growth for HKEX, with recent launch of MSCI China A50 Connect
index futures marked a breakthrough on HKEX's effort for China connectivity