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E.l.f. stock may be ‘tiring out’ going into earnings, strategist says

E.l.f. Beauty stock (ELF) has been on a seemingly unstoppable run, but investors may be wise to take a pause ahead of earnings on Wednesday, one technical strategist said.

"The business strategy has been working," Freedom Capital Markets Chief Strategist Jay Woods told Yahoo Finance (video above). "I know the story. It's phenomenal. ... The tremendous run is there, and it looks like it's tiring out."

E.l.f. stock has skyrocketed over the past year, with a 291% year-over-year gain, dramatically outperforming the 8% rise in the Nasdaq (^IXIC).

And the returns have been even more impressive going back to the start of the pandemic.

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The Oakland, Calif.-based company, which tends to skew toward younger consumers, has continued to lean on innovation and value, offering viral "holy grail" cosmetics, such as an $8 Putty Primer, inspired by another prestige brand's $52 face primer.

The brand has resonated with Gen Z consumers, in particular. According to a survey conducted by Piper Sandler, e.l.f is the most popular beauty brand among teens.

"We have this incredible value equation of premium quality products at these extraordinary prices, which really resonate with consumers," e.l.f. Beauty CEO Tarang Amin told Yahoo Finance Live previously.

Like many companies, e.l.f.'s stock rose in 2020 and 2021. However, unlike others that saw their shares come under pressure in 2022, e.l.f. stock continued to gain momentum. Since May 2020, e.l.f. stock is up 409%. And year to date, the stock is up 53% compared to a 20% gain for the Nasdaq.

In a recent note, Oppenheimer analyst Rupesh Parikh explained that e.l.f. is in a strong position going into fourth-quarter earnings; though, much of the upside may already be priced in to the stock.

E.L.F. cosmetic products are seen for sale in a store in Manhattan, New York City, U.S., June 29, 2022. REUTERS/Andrew Kelly
E.L.F. cosmetic products are seen for sale in a store in Manhattan, New York City, U.S., June 29, 2022. REUTERS/Andrew Kelly (Andrew Kelly / reuters)

"Overall, we see a very bright fundamental outlook continuing for the company with multiple drivers to sustain momentum and fuel further market share gains," he wrote, lifting his Q4 earnings estimate to $0.26 from $0.20. "However, when looking at our base case and even more bullish modeling scenarios, we believe shares appear to largely reflect the upside case from here."

Woods also acknowledged that it's possible that the stock may still continue moving higher on earnings, but investors are likely to face more downside risk.

"It's right on its trendline," he said. "It's right on the 50-day moving average. Given the run it's had, it's going to have to crush it ... in earnings to see it make new highs."

As a result, Woods suggested investors take some profits and sit out the earnings period.

"If it gaps higher, yes, you may see another run," he said. "Right now, the risk/reward setup, to me, is something you want to avoid."

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