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US natgas futures jump 5% on low wind power forecasts, soaring global prices

June 5 (Reuters) - U.S. natural gas futures soared 5% on Monday on forecasts for low wind power, warmer weather and higher air conditioning demand over the next two weeks than previously expected, rising exports to Mexico and a jump in global gas prices. The amount of U.S. power generated by wind so far this week dropped to just 6% of the total versus a recent high of 12% during the week ended May 12, according to federal energy data. The amount of power generated by gas has risen to 44% so far this week, up from around 40% in recent weeks. When power generators burn more gas to produce electricity to meet rising air conditioning use, there is less of the fuel available to go into storage for the peak winter heating season. That helps boost prices. That U.S. price increase occurred despite near record output and a drop in the amount of gas flowing to liquefied natural gas (LNG) export plants due to maintenance. Front-month gas futures for July delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange were up 11 cents, or 5.1%, to $2.282 per million British thermal units (mmBtu) at 9:19 a.m. EDT (1319 GMT). Even though gas prices rose about 3% last week, speculators cut their net long futures and options positions on the New York Mercantile and Intercontinental Exchanges for the first time in three weeks, according to the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission's Commitments of Traders report. In the spot market, low demand due to mild weather cut next-day gas prices for Monday at the U.S. Henry Hub benchmark in Louisiana to $1.74 per mmBtu, their lowest price since October 2020 for a second day in a row. In Northern California, next-day gas at the PG&E Citygate fell to $2.51 per mmBtu, its lowest since July 2020. Around the world, meanwhile, gas prices soared over 20% at the Dutch Title Transfer Facility (TTF) benchmark in Europe to almost $9 per mmBtu, on low LNG sendout and outages. So far this year, gas prices at TTF and the Japan Korea Marker benchmark in Asia have collapsed more than 60%. On Friday, gas at TTF was trading at a 25-month low of around $7 per mmBtu, while JKM held near a 24-month low near $9. SUPPLY AND DEMAND Data provider Refinitiv said average gas output in the U.S. Lower 48 states has eased to 102.4 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) so far in June, down from a monthly record of 102.5 bcfd in May. Meteorologists projected the weather in the Lower 48 states would remain mostly near through June 13 before turning hotter than normal from June 14-20. Refinitiv forecast U.S. gas demand, including exports, would ease from 95.9 bcfd this week to 95.3 bcfd next week on expectations wind power will remain low this week. Those demand forecasts were higher than Refinitiv's outlook on Friday. U.S. exports to Mexico have risen to 7.4 bcfd so far in June, up from 6.0 bcfd in May. That compares with a monthly record high of 6.7 bcfd in June 2021. Gas flows to the seven big U.S. LNG export plants have slid to 12.1 bcfd so far in June from 13.0 bcfd in May. That was well below the monthly record of 14.0 bcfd in April due to maintenance at several facilities, including Cheniere Energy Inc's Sabine Pass in Louisiana. Record flows in April were higher than the 13.8 bcfd of gas the seven big plants can turn into LNG since the facilities also use some of the fuel to power equipment used to produce LNG. Week ended Week ended Year ago Five-year Jun 2 May 26 Jun 2 average (Forecast) (Actual) Jun 2 U.S. weekly natgas storage change (bcf): 113 110 99 100 U.S. total natgas in storage (bcf): 2,559 2,446 1,988 2,197 U.S. total storage versus 5-year average 16.5% 16.6% Global Gas Benchmark Futures ($ per mmBtu) Current Prior Day This Month Prior Year Five Year Day Last Year Average Average 2022 (2018-2022) Henry Hub 2.22 2.17 7.60 6.54 3.60 Title Transfer Facility (TTF) 8.09 7.34 33.44 40.50 14.39 Japan Korea Marker (JKM) 9.29 9.27 29.72 34.11 14.31 Refinitiv Heating (HDD), Cooling (CDD) and Total (TDD) Degree Days Two-Week Total Forecast Current Prior Day Prior Year 10-Year 30-Year Day Norm Norm U.S. GFS HDDs 11 14 16 24 19 U.S. GFS CDDs 154 135 170 148 142 U.S. GFS TDDs 165 149 186 172 161 Refinitiv U.S. Weekly GFS Supply and Demand Forecasts Prior Week Current Next Week This Week Five-Year Week Last Year Average For Month U.S. Supply (bcfd) U.S. Lower 48 Dry Production 103.0 102.5 102.6 97.5 89.8 U.S. Imports from Canada 6.8 6.9 6.7 8.7 7.9 U.S. LNG Imports 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 Total U.S. Supply 109.8 109.4 109.3 106.2 97.8 U.S. Demand (bcfd) U.S. Exports to Canada 2.5 2.5 2.4 2.5 2.3 U.S. Exports to Mexico 6.7 6.9 6.2 6.2 5.5 U.S. LNG Exports 13.3 12.0 12.9 12.0 6.0 U.S. Commercial 4.5 4.5 4.4 4.5 4.7 U.S. Residential 3.9 3.9 3.7 3.7 4.3 U.S. Power Plant 31.8 37.7 37.3 33.8 34.8 U.S. Industrial 21.1 21.2 21.2 20.7 21.1 U.S. Plant Fuel 5.1 5.1 5.1 5.1 5.1 U.S. Pipe Distribution 1.8 2.0 2.0 1.8 1.8 U.S. Vehicle Fuel 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 Total U.S. Consumption 68.4 74.5 73.8 69.7 71.9 Total U.S. Demand 90.9 95.9 95.3 90.4 85.7 U.S. weekly power generation percent by fuel - EIA Week ended Week ended Week ended Week ended Week ended Jun 9 Jun 2 May 26 May 19 May 12 Wind 6 10 9 8 12 Solar 5 5 5 4 5 Hydro 7 8 9 9 9 Other 2 2 2 2 2 Petroleum 0 0 0 0 0 Natural Gas 44 40 40 42 40 Coal 17 15 15 15 14 Nuclear 20 20 20 19 19 SNL U.S. Natural Gas Next-Day Prices ($ per mmBtu) Hub Current Prior Day Day Henry Hub 1.74 1.77 Transco Z6 New York 1.23 1.51 PG&E Citygate 2.51 2.81 Eastern Gas (old Dominion South) 1.29 1.37 Chicago Citygate 1.66 1.67 Algonquin Citygate 1.40 1.91 SoCal Citygate 2.00 1.83 Waha Hub 1.65 1.38 AECO 1.46 1.43 SNL U.S. Power Next-Day Prices ($ per megawatt-hour) Hub Current Prior Day Day New England 25.00 54.50 PJM West 34.50 48.75 Ercot North 30.25 24.35 Mid C 59.38 32.00 Palo Verde 14.75 16.50 SP-15 16.25 18.25 (Reporting by Scott DiSavino; editing by Paul Simao)