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Match Group, Inc. (MTCH)

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71.81-4.89 (-6.38%)
收市價: 04:00PM EDT
72.25 +0.44 (+0.61%)
收市後: 07:56PM EDT
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  • i
    investfordummies
    $MOMO conversation
    Current PE = 4.06 (ex Cash), Thank you @Martin

    I did some work on that and found out that the number of shares outstanding in Yahoo is well correct (2 shares per ADS).

    "As of September 30, 2020, the number of ordinary shares outstanding was 415,801,407." in last Q3 report
    MOMO INC SPON ADS EACH REP 2 ORD SHS CL A MOMO INC SPONSORED ADR CLASS A =>208m ADS
    => market cap = 208 * 17.14 =3.56bn
    Shareholder equity = 2.1 bn
    "As of September 30, 2020, Momo's cash, cash equivalents, short-term deposits and long-term deposits totaled RMB15,764.1 million (US$2,321.8 million), compared to RMB15,225.3 million as of December 31, 2019. Net cash provided by operating activities in the third quarter of 2020 was RMB691.1 million (US$101.8 million), compared to RMB1,175.9 million in the third quarter of 2019." from Q3 earnings
    => 3.56 - 2.1 = 1.46 bn / 360m earnings (12 months to September)= 4.06 PE

    -Of course there is a $300m share buyback announced in September 2020
    -The undervaluation is even bigger should Tantan confirm its growth and as $BMBL and $MTCH get much higher valorization
  • i
    investfordummies
    $MOMO conversation
    How to return value to shareholders... The next steps available for MOMO management:
    1/ Complete current $300m share buyback announced in September 2020
    2/ Announce the next share buyback $1bn?(2.1 bn shareholder equity / As of September 30, 2020, Momo's cash, cash equivalents, short-term deposits and long-term deposits totaled RMB15,764.1 million (US$2,321.8 million))
    3/ IPO of Tantan in Hong Kong in 2022, sell 5% of shares? whenever ready (I would suggest when 1bn yearly revenue reached, so should be no later than 2022 if current growth stays there)
    => check IPO of Kuaishou 1024.hk : "Kuaishou’s shares opened in Hong Kong on Friday at HK$338 ($43.6) apiece, a 194% jump from its IPO price of HK$115 ($14.8). That catapults its market cap to nearly HK$1.4 trillion ($180 billion). " (under $4 bn revenue in 2020)
    => $BMBL market cap of $7bn (revenue very close to Tantan, 165m in Q4 )
    => $MTCH market cap of $41 bn ($2.4 bn revenue expected for2021)

    => so, all those are trading at ratios of 10 to 40 times the revenues...
    =>I let you imagine what valorisation Tantan IPO would get... it looks like at least $10bn if you do the math

    As many know, Tantan business is not dependent of Chinese politics... on the contrary, it looks like China needs more babies...
  • i
    investfordummies
    $MOMO conversation
    5 reasons why I won't sell $MOMO at $40... $MOMO analysis for dummies
    1/ ex cash PE closer to 4 as shareholder equity just under 2 bn USD if memory is correct... (End 2019)
    2/ should the growth of Tantan continue at current rate, when will $MOMO be considered as a growth stock again so that the market can't ignore? My guess, is less than 2 years... At that time, people will value it as a growth stock and not as a value stock... Like now Which means PEG ratio > 1.5 ... Which should mean $120 within 2 years?
    3/ when management will list Tantan (just an idea) later on in China... I guess price will do ×10 if you check $MTCH and what happened to kuaishou (1024.hk) earlier this year. So $170 target here, overnight...
    4/ I couldn't find any other growth stock, priced lower than this value value stock, with so much cash on hands, and printing as much cash yearly...
    5/ So, you will understand why my worst case scenario is a bid at $30 tomorrow
    Don't forget to do your own due diligence as we are all wrong ... even more those days :-)
    Don't hesitate to correct me, should I be wrong
  • J
    James
    $MTCH conversation
    Online dating models essentially target two types of singles- those looking for commitment and those who are not. Typically the free /w ad revenue model, as proposed by $FB, appeals most to those who are not. These individuals looking for a hookup typically use a number of these free dating services simply because they are free and they increase exposure. These people might buy a premium subscription to enhance their experience, but the majority will not, and these subscriptions are cheap. Tinder is by far the market leader in this space simply because it works well without premium and offers a relative level on anonymity. The other client demographic looking for commitment is typically more interested in a premium, service at a premium price, that eliminates those looking for a quick hookup by demanding "skin in the game", again Match has done well in this department- and with the free users, will not likely face much overlap with $FB due to the crow free attracts. Not to mention PoF and Ok!Cupid are doing well existing in a space somewhat in between these two models. The argument that a "free model" from $FB will wipeout $MTCH is null as Match.com does not target free users, and because Tinder, Pof, and Ok!Cupid offer a free experience. The argument that users will leave is also null because most users of free services spread their time and across platforms. This is a pure PR move, and while an earnings miss could be a bump in the road, this FB news is irrelevant to future value of the enterprise.
  • R
    R
    $momo makes similar revenue and earnings compared to $Mtch but at less than 1/10 the valuation. This is a no brainer and should be at least a $50 stock (if not much more)
  • M
    Martin
    $MOMO conversation
    YEAHH cheaper stock price means MORE buyback (120 million USD or so left I think) means MORE dividends! NO change in fundamentals, in fact the picture is quite good: DESPITE the reorganisation (core revenue up) and headwinds of covida and slowing economies/short bashers this company cashes in REAL PROFITS quite nicely comapred to bumble $BMBLE and Match $MTCH and all the no profit "growth" stocks...buing more, will probably never sell (150s is fair valuation MINIMUM) GLTA
  • M
    Martin
    $MOMO conversation
    bought more today, unbelievable that the company is still so cheap compared to its balance sheets/growth prospects, dividend etc - look at $MTCH Match Group valuation for a reference, should be in the 50s now!!
  • N
    Nathan
    $BMBL conversation
    $BMBL growing revenue at 50%...compared to $MTCH at 21%. Match's brands just cannibalize each other, and they bog down their expenses on so many different apps. Bumble, on the other hand, places all of their energy into one, limiting their costs and avoids competing it's brands against one another.

    $BMBL is the future of dating. Women love it...it's as safe as they can get in a dating app.
  • T
    TFBOYS
    Momo has same eps with match $mtch while stock price is only 1/10 and same amount of paid users
  • i
    investfordummies
    $MOMO conversation
    If I was $MTCH or $BMBL management, I would buy 20% of $MOMO company ($600m now) ... as a hedge in case they miss the biggest world market... and... as long term cash management... with the 4% dividend... and all the upside if growth is back as suspected... this is a no brainer... While Momo has nearly has much cash on its account as its own market cap...

    Daimler had 10% of $TSLA not so long ago... was a clever move to keep it... but nice to take it in the past... it is just a hedge...
  • M
    Martin
    $MOMO conversation
    $MOMO $HUYA $DOYU $BABA WILL OVERTAKE THEIR US RIVALS!! When us capital markets bubble bursts there will be a rush of capital into extremely undervalued high quality china tech with massive cash hoards and growth! China is the future, one should buy at least the market leaders there! $MOMO market leader of dating, way cheaper than $MTCH with much more users and great balance sheet!
  • i
    investfordummies
    $MOMO conversation
    Momo

    2020 revenue $2.2 bn
    2017 revenue $1.3 bn

    so, who says no growth?
    compare vs market capitalisation
    compare vs $BMBL and $MTCH

    Here is the history of Shareholder equity, which is nearly all in cash:
    2021-03-31 2588
    2020-12-31 2273
    2020-09-30 2106
    2020-06-30 1971
    2020-03-31 1879
    2019-12-31 1971
    2019-09-30 1755
    2019-06-30 1664
    2019-03-31 1564
    2018-12-31 1603
    2018-09-30 1485
    2018-06-30 1417
    2018-03-31 1207
    2017-12-31 1038
    2017-09-30 910
    2017-06-30 808
    2017-03-31 727
    2016-12-31 634
    2016-09-30 551
    2016-06-30 502
    2016-03-31 482
    2015-12-31 468
    2015-09-30 458
    2015-06-30 456
    2015-03-31 450
    2014-12-31 440

    Yes the management has built a crazy cash machine
  • N
    Nuphase
    $MOMO conversation
    Can this be the $MTCH of China? If so, this looks like a great time to get in — considering their solid fundamentals.
  • A
    Anonymous
    $MTCH conversation
    $MTCH
    Target Raised by Barclays Equal Weight USD 129 » USD 140
    Upgraded by JPMorgan Chase Neutral » Overweight USD 175
    Upgraded by Susquehanna Bancshares Neutral » Positive USD 150 » USD 165
    Target Raised by Deutsche Bank Buy USD 160 » USD 168
    Maintains KeyBanc Overweight USD 155 » USD 165
  • T
    Thaddeus
    Some implied moves for #earnings next week(1of2):

    $GOOGL- 5.8%
    $DIS 5.5%
    $SNAP 12.5%
    $CMG 6.6%
    $GILD 4.8%
    $MTCH 13.0%
    $MCHP 6.5%
    $SPOT 7.9%
    $QCOM 6.2%
    $TWLO 10.1%
    $IRBT 16.4%
    $PTON 14.5%
    $GRUB 15.1%
    $TWTR 11%
    $UBER 8.7%
    $PINS 12.9%
    $WYNN 8.7%
    $ABBV 4.5%
    $F 6.24%
  • T
    TFBOYS
    And momo has more cash and less debt $mtch
  • J
    James
    Great buy! If the central tendency moves back to the moving average we should see shares at 41+. No reason for the drop. The fact this company now owns every major dating platform is going to make it a monster. Just like a portfolio many people diversify between free dating apps. If $FB is free, odds are if they're using a paid service it'll be a premium $MTCH company.
  • D
    David
    $MEET conversation
    Geoffrey Cook has been Chief Executive Officer of The Meet Group, Inc. (NASDAQ:MEET) since March 11, 2013. Since November 10, 2011, he was Director and Chief Operating Officer of the company, appointed in connection with the merger of Quepasa and myY
    Geoffrey Cook has been Chief Executive Officer of The Meet Group, Inc. (NASDAQ:MEET) since March 11, 2013. Since November 10, 2011, he was Director and Chief Operating Officer of the company, appointed in connection with the merger of Quepasa and myY
    www.twst.com
  • k
    kxexo
    $MTCH conversation
    Match Group Inc. $MTCH Total Debt (mrq) 3.93B

    Book Value Per Share (mrq) -4.50
  • K
    Kevin M
    $MOMO conversation
    Watching $mtch earnings today - let's see if that moves the needle
    Waiting for $bmbl IPO - let's see if that moves the needle
    Anticipating q4 earnings next month - let's see if that moves the needle
    Dividend month after - let's see if that moves the needle