Historically, the stock market usually sells off in a bear market about a year (give or take a few months) BEFORE a recession actually hits. WHEN a recession actually hits, the stock market selling accelerates with massive seller capitulation, worse than now. It's then that you be a hero and can buy for much, much cheaper. Since the bear market started 6 months ago, we have anywhere from 6-12 months more selling in a bear market (lower highs, lower lows), until the recession actually hits in early or mid 2023. The selling isn't done yet because the recession hasn't even come yet, meaning don't be a hero now and try to catch a falling knife, or you will get hurt, badly. All rallies are to be sold or shorted. You just wait, the recession WILL come.
Putin and Xi aren't done destroying the supply side with his war against Ukraine to wipe it off the map and steal their land, and Xi's zero COVID lockdowns. It can be argued China's getting cheap oil from Russia so they can continue these lockdowns to hurt the West/US in a silent economic war. The Feds only option is to destroy the demand side of the SUPPLY = DEMAND equation to bring the two in balance. The Feds HAVE to induce a recession to fix inflation.
An even scarier scenario is Putin stops all oil and gas exports to Europe. Global oil prices will sky rocket above $200. Russia will continue to sell oil to India and China at discounted rates, which is fetching higher oil revenues now than before the invasion of Ukraine! Global recession follows in months.
The 1970s and 80s oil shocks and inflation led to an entire decade of the stock market being stagnant, whereas in Japan, their stock market has not recovered for over 40 years! FORTY YEARS!!! Even in the good US of A, after the 1999 pump and dump, the market didn't recover for around 15 years. It recovered in 2008 only to fall even deeper before recovering a few years later, after the Feds went to basically zero rates.
In other words, as long as the Feds keep raising rates in a high inflation environment, the euphoric rallies of the past will be used for selling the rips and new bag holders tricked by big banks like JPMorgan so they can dump on you.
By the time this is all said and done, I wouldn't be surprised to see $spy in the low 300s or high 200s (.i.e. the S&P $^gspc in the 2800-3200 range), and the Nasdaq in the 5-8K range. $amzn, $aapl, etc. will not be immune.
Indexes close at high of the day , going to be a good July Dylan7 hours ago $SPY conversation Another nice pop in indexes at 10 am on ISM numbers heading way higher
Hey guys, I got $377 July 5 $SPY puts and am wondering whether I should get out tomorrow/Monday morning or hold for a few days. What are your thoughts? Thanks in advance
this board never disappoints lol doc24651 hour ago $SPY conversation You guys who rushed in to buy puts when the gap was first filled and almost immediately started feeling confident, do know that it will almost certainly move back up to test green again don't you?
J
$BOXD Breaking out EOD here beautiful. This could easily open up $4+ Monday I wouldn’t want to be without shares. $RDBX Had the same short issue this has imagine when they get squeezed here 👏👀🔥🔥🔥 $SPY
J
$MULN Short squeeze today? Moving in Pre-Market let’s gooooo!!! $SPY
$SPY seems like below $400 after CPI on Friday. All the sentiment is mostly bearish.
B
$SPY $500 will be EOY. $ROST $200 $COIN $400 $SPCE $100 $TWTR $60 will all come. This is just a bear trap. Interest rates are not real they are illusion by whales.
OPEC to increase oil output, Australia bumper wheat, to alleviate food supply issues, China lockdown eases as they learned from Shanghai and didn't need to lock down Beijing. Inflation peaked in March and heading down. Some companies like Apple are moving manufacturing to Vietnam. Markets to make all time highs again within the year. Got myself some $AMZN for the split, $ROKU, $MDB, $SPY, and $AAPL.
Last chance to cover guys. You've been warned. Tomorrow's CPI going to show inflation peaked in March. Market will rally as expected. Big fish like JP Morgan knows this too. $SPY to 440 and Nasdaq to 13K
No capitulation until a recession hits around mid 2023. That's when we'll see a massive sell offs, VIX going sky high, and capitulation. $SPY will be in the low $300s or even lower as markets generally overshoot up and down, and the Nasdaq will be in the 6K-8K range.
Retail once again tricked by big money (specifically JPMorgan) to bag hold while they dump. If you study past recessions, including the 1970s oil shock when inflation went up the roof like now, you'll see the market sells off in a bear market 6-12 months with lower highs and lower lows, until a recession is triggered, and then the real sell off starts. The VIX goes sky high, and we see real capitulation. THAT'S when to be a hero and buy, in the middle of a recession because that's when you get the most shares for your money for the bounce back up. That's also when unemployment goes sky high from the recession, which is also a good indicator on when to buy, when unemployment rises insanely fast to 6-7% and higher. $SPY for sure will be in the low $300s and the Nasdaq will be in the 5-8K range.
Barnarke wishes he could make calls like this Rich7 days agoReplied to a reaction $SPY conversation IMO we need to get into the 360s first before any meaningful bounce can happen
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Market is forward looking. It don't care that inflation is here. It only cares that inflation is getting lower. Market already sold off. Bullish Ascending Triangle on the 5+ day chart. It's been trading in range, ready for lower CPI tomorrow. The chart formation says we go green today back to the upper range of the trading channel. Tomorrow, we sky rocket, and shorts will panic cover with longs FOMO chasing.
If inflation comes in lower than estimated, expect a massive rally. If it comes in very high, obviously a selloff, but should recover next week from China reopening anticipation. If it comes in a little higher than estimated, it might sell off initially but then rally to close green in anticipation of China's reopening and markets accepting Feds raising rates and assessing later this summer. Trend appears to be up, despite the volatility.
Also, if the UN gets Russia to agree to allow Ukrainian food exports in return for allowing Russian and Belarusian potash and fertilizer exports, expect the market to rally too. Wheat needs to be exported soon or it'll go bad in a few months at most.
If inflation starts going lower throughout summer, this very well could be the lows this year.
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Putin and Xi aren't done destroying the supply side with his war against Ukraine to wipe it off the map and steal their land, and Xi's zero COVID lockdowns. It can be argued China's getting cheap oil from Russia so they can continue these lockdowns to hurt the West/US in a silent economic war. The Feds only option is to destroy the demand side of the SUPPLY = DEMAND equation to bring the two in balance. The Feds HAVE to induce a recession to fix inflation.
An even scarier scenario is Putin stops all oil and gas exports to Europe. Global oil prices will sky rocket above $200. Russia will continue to sell oil to India and China at discounted rates, which is fetching higher oil revenues now than before the invasion of Ukraine! Global recession follows in months.
The 1970s and 80s oil shocks and inflation led to an entire decade of the stock market being stagnant, whereas in Japan, their stock market has not recovered for over 40 years! FORTY YEARS!!! Even in the good US of A, after the 1999 pump and dump, the market didn't recover for around 15 years. It recovered in 2008 only to fall even deeper before recovering a few years later, after the Feds went to basically zero rates.
In other words, as long as the Feds keep raising rates in a high inflation environment, the euphoric rallies of the past will be used for selling the rips and new bag holders tricked by big banks like JPMorgan so they can dump on you.
By the time this is all said and done, I wouldn't be surprised to see $spy in the low 300s or high 200s (.i.e. the S&P $^gspc in the 2800-3200 range), and the Nasdaq in the 5-8K range. $amzn, $aapl, etc. will not be immune.
Dylan7 hours ago
$SPY conversation
Another nice pop in indexes at 10 am on ISM numbers heading way higher
doc24651 hour ago
$SPY conversation
You guys who rushed in to buy puts when the gap was first filled and almost immediately started feeling confident, do know that it will almost certainly move back up to test green again don't you?
All the sentiment is mostly bearish.
$SPY $QQQ $VYM $SPYD $ECC $OPEN
long turn it will back $WIMI $AAPL $SPY
Rich7 days agoReplied to a reaction
$SPY conversation
IMO we need to get into the 360s first before any meaningful bounce can happen
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Also, if the UN gets Russia to agree to allow Ukrainian food exports in return for allowing Russian and Belarusian potash and fertilizer exports, expect the market to rally too. Wheat needs to be exported soon or it'll go bad in a few months at most.
If inflation starts going lower throughout summer, this very well could be the lows this year.
$^GSPC
$^DJIA
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$TQQQ
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