雅虎香港財經 Tech-hungry investors are underestimating energy
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We who track markets for a living tend to focus a lot of attention on the noisiest, the buzziest. Tesla anything. Apple product release. AI whatever.
So it’s good to take a step back sometimes to find the stuff that’s happening without getting as much notice.
Energy stocks have been the stealth winner this quarter, and this month. The group has topped the S&P 500 since the end of June, climbing 13%, and then again since the end of August, with a 4% gain.
Of course, the rebound in crude oil is part of the impetus for the outperformance. WTI has gained more than 25% this quarter, spurred in part by Saudi Arabia’s production-cut extensions.
But gains in the underlying commodity haven’t been the only reason behind the rally, according to Lori Calvasina, RBC Capital Markets head of US equity strategy, who spoke to Yahoo Finance on Tuesday.
“We are in the very early stages of an earnings revision recovery in the energy space,” she said. “We’re starting to see energy do what tech was doing at the beginning of the year — exiting that downward revision cycle.”
In addition to that recovery — which she said is still in its early stages — valuations for energy stocks look attractive. That’s especially true when they’re contrasted with tech, which looks overstretched and overvalued, she said.
"The leadership [stocks] are tired and need to take a break," Calvasina said. "Money is going to rotate into these value-oriented sectors, and I think energy is giving you one of the best alternatives."
There are other strategists, including Oppenheimer’s John Stoltzfus, who agree, especially given continued inflation concerns.
But on the flip side, the investors don't see it — or are still hoping to squeeze a few more drops of growth out of tech. According to Bank of America's latest fund flow survey, the bank's clients haven’t been putting their money into energy stocks. And energy stocks, along with industrials and utilities, have seen outflows this year, even over the past month as actual energy pricing has climbed.
Tech remains the shiny object this year, with the trebling in Nvidia shares and returns of around 40% for communication services and information technology. But with that performance wavering as of late, some investors are looking elsewhere.
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