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標普500指數 (^GSPC)

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  • B
    Bob
    $^IXIC conversation
    Since many of you don't know how to read charts, and some of you flat out refuse to believe in charts as if looking at a GPS traffic map and yelling at the device that it's wrong, I've decided to give you a quick lesson. The Nasdaq's prior support were at 13.5K and 12.5K, with minor support at 11.8K. As the market continued to sell off, these supports where longs were buying becomes resistance. Some disheartened trapped longs are eager to dump when the market hits their entry point, as well as new shorts trying to take positions along these resistance lines. I previously warned to look at how Monday's close or intraday chart looked like, which signals if this is "a" bottom (not "THE" bottom because no one knows where that one is). Monday's close was flat for the Nasdaq, but for the S&P, it was actually on an uptrend despite ending on the bottom of the trend. It was still a bullish signal, meaning sentiment among market participants had changed from bearish to bullish, especially with China lockdowns about to ease.

    Today, the market moved above the first resistance of 11.8K, meaning bullish. All AI and big fund managers who's worth anything will understand the signal of this bullish reversal. This means it's back up to test the next major resistance of 12.5K. I previously said 13K was the resistance, and if you look at larger charts, it does show 13K. However, the detailed charts actually show 13.5K is the real resistance, meaning after the market breaches 12.5K, it'll next test 13.5K on the Nasdaq, which is also around the 50% retrace level. All bear markets have sell offs, followed by a 50% retrace, which can be weeks or months. Bitcoin does the exact same thing. And these chart movements have been doing so since before computers were invented back almost a hundred years ago. It's simply the sum of everyone and their second cousins trading.

    The key is to watch the bounce. If it surpasses the 50% retrace point and breaches up, that's a very bullish signal, and more money will pile in, pushing it back up higher. Both the S&P and Nasdaq bounced off major support at 11K and 3.8K, respectively.

    Typically in low inflation environments, you get a yield curve inversion first, the market sells off in a correction, and then heads back up to make a new all time high or at least a double top, before selling off to the lows for a recession. This almost always happens. But inflation complicates things. If inflation gets under control, don't be surprised to see new all time highs. If inflation is still an issue before the year is over (i.e. 7% or more year over year), then I wouldn't expect to see any new all time highs. I'd expect to see a 50% retrace, or an attempt at a double top, only to fail with a lower high. Again, this can sometimes take months to accomplish. If inflation persists well into late next year, I definitely expect the market to move back to retest last Thursday's low, and even approach the next levels of support, which for the Nasdaq is 8K, and 3.2K on the S&P.

    In the mean time, learning how to read charts, and sentiment from market participants, anticipating future events, will help you make money trading the volatility instead of just being a perma bear or perma bull. If China locks down again, start shorting the market again.

    Click link to see full image:

    https://photos.app.goo.gl/C8cd1hyejEpguCuWA

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  • B
    Bob
    $^IXIC conversation
    Trend is up. Higher highs, higher lows. Don't let the daily price fluctuations fool you. Shanghai at zero COVID infections in non-quarantined areas. Sure, could go lower later this year, but Putin losing in Ukraine, and after Xi gets a third term, he's going to most likely focus on the economy after destroying the Chinese economy. That or the Chinese premier, who's more into the economy, gets leadership. Markets will rally hard either way.

    $^GSPC
    $SPY
  • B
    Bob
    $^IXIC conversation
    Teehee Shorts. Missed your chance to cover on that dip. I went short right before Powell, covered, and bought long ago lower down. I told you guys on last Thursday I officially declared that was the low and to cover and go long. S&P back to 4.4K and Nasdaq to 13K and higher. I warned you all, repeatedly. Repeatedly. ktnxbye

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  • B
    Bob
    $^IXIC conversation
    Just look at the 5 day chart. There comes a point where enough is enough, selling that is. This is that time. Shorts are trapped. Back to 13K Nasdaq and 4.3K $SPY. The trend is back up. Never fight the trend.

    $^GSPC
  • B
    Bob
    $^IXIC conversation
    The key to watch is Monday's close and intraday chart trend. If it closes green, or the trend is up, even if it sells off some for profit taking early on or mid-day, that's a BIG bull signal. That means it'll continue up the next few weeks, especially with Shanghai cases down dramatically, with officials closing down some COVID quarantine centers, and stores starting to reopen. China was locking down because most of their vaccinated are young working class, and not the elderly like in the U.S. and western countries. They are attempting to vaccinate older people now. Once that's done, lockdowns will be less of an issue.

    Nasdaq should bounce at minimum a 50% retrace to 13K, possibly higher as the 5 day detailed charts show resistance is actually around 13.4K, while the S&P should also bounce to the 4.3K area, possibly higher with $TSLA and $AAPL factories in Shanghai ramping up from low capacities of 30% or less. The Russell 2000 small caps $^RUT also usually leads up (or down), and with it starting to lead back up, this is a bullish sign. Less inflation from China and Russia means lower rates from the Feds. Futures currently opening green, a good sign indeed. To da moon, folks! Any price at this level is a steal for the near term. That's why big money bought big the past weeks. Buy or cover while you still can. Consider yourselves warned, again.

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  • B
    Bob
    $^IXIC conversation
    LOL when I warned you guys that China's lockdowns and Putin's illegal land grab of Ukraine was the cause of inflation, people laughed at me. Now that Powell is confirming the SAME THINGS I SAID, and China is reopening and Putin is on the verge of getting his war criminal troops wiped out (British intelligence estimate about 30% are no longer effective), inflation will start cooling down, and Feds won't need to go as aggressive. It's all about China and Russia right now. The rest will be resolved in due time when more and more vaccines become available to the rest of the world, especially third world countries that manufacture junk that western economies buy, thus alleviating inflation and supply chain issues. The time to short was the past 5 months. It's now time to buy for a BIGLY bounce. BIGLY I say. Consider yourselves warned, again. And again, and again. You get the picture.

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  • B
    Bob
    $^IXIC conversation
    Bob
    19 hours ago
    $^IXIC conversation
    I officially declare the near term bottom was in today. We could see more selling near the end of year when China locks down again, but it came very close to support (3,800 for $^GSPC and 11,000 for the Nas) and bounced right off, twice. All technical analysts know this, and so do all AI. The algos will be pushing this back up. Time to close short positions and go long, kids. $AMZN rallied, and $AAPL $140 support held.

    $SPY
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  • N
    Nicholas
    $^DJI conversation
    This too shall fade...

    $^ixic $^gspc $aapl $tsla $msft $amzn $goog $nflx $rivn
  • B
    Bob
    $^IXIC conversation
    I officially declare the near term bottom was in today. We could see more selling near the end of year when China locks down again, but it came very close to support (3,800 for $^GSPC and 11,000 for the Nas) and bounced right off, twice. All technical analysts know this, and so do all AI. The algos will be pushing this back up. Time to close short positions and go long, kids. $AMZN rallied, and $AAPL $140 support held.
  • J
    JohnnyBGood
    $^IXIC conversation
    The Nasdaq bounced off close to 11K, which is where the next major support is, $APPL bounced off $140, which was also where its first support is, and the S&P bounced off near 3.8K support. China lockdowns should be coming to an end soon. Shanghai infection charts show the end is near with cases half of what they were the day prior. I think we're near the short term bottom for a big bounce boys and girls. Trade accordingly.

    Don't get me wrong, if China continues to lockdown later this year, expect more selling again then. But, we're now due for a big technical bounce.

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  • J
    JohnnyBGood
    $^IXIC conversation
    Orange is to blame for this mess. His mishandling of COVID ensured a complete US economic shutdown, forcing Feds to lower rates to nothing, eat up $9 TRILLION in QE, and forced the government to hand out excess stimulus. This inflated the demand side.

    Then, western economies reopened while 3rd world countries that manufacture shix we buy, like China, lagged behind in manufacturing, along with shipping and trucking limitations, causing a deflation of the supply side. Orange enabled and emboldened Russia by weakening US allies and NATO, tried to blackmail Ukraine, blamed Ukraine for meddling in US elections, and did everything he could to make Russia great again. Russia illegally invades Ukraine after Orange did Putin's work, adding to a deflation of the supply side AND increased oil prices.

    This massive imbalance from deflated supply and inflated demand leads to inflation, forcing the Feds to raise rates aggressively, ensuring an epic recession coming. If the Feds didn't do this, we'd have stagflation or hyperinflation, which is 10x worse than a recession.

    "I don't take responsibility at all"
    -DJT

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  • B
    Bob
    $^IXIC conversation
    Xi just doubled down on the zero COVID policy and warned anyone who questioned his authority and strategy. Inflation was a problem before Putin invaded Ukraine. That only exacerbated inflation. This means inflation is here to stay, if not will only get worse when, not if, China continues to lock down tens to hundreds of millions of people, for just a few handful of COVID cases. We know the virus can keep this up indefinitely. The market's rally the past 2 years will be undone. I have to admit there's A LOT further down to sell off now that Xi has doubled down on his policies that are creating inflation for the rest of the world, and his buddy in Russia is making it worse.

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  • B
    Bob
    $^IXIC conversation
    LOL #SO_MUCH_WINNING!

    I expect the S&P to bounce to around 4,300 and the Nasdaq to bounce to around 13,000.

    Depending on whether or not China lockdowns still occurring or lack thereof, or Putin's attempt at wiping Ukraine off the map, could go higher.

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  • N
    Nicholas
    $^DJI conversation
    Sell today before the close ahead of the Fed decision tomorrow. Powell is coming for you...

    $^gspc $^ixic
  • B
    Bob
    $^IXIC conversation
    LoL cover shorts, go long, short again around 13K Naz or 4.3K S&P. But if there's no more China locksdowns, and/or Putin kicked out of Ukraine, stay long because it's headed back up. Trend is back up now that Naz bounced off around 11K support and S&P $^GSPC $SPY bounced off around 3.8K support
  • B
    Bob
    $^IXIC conversation
    Ouch, I tried to warn you shorties. I'm a legit straight shooter, going both short and long when the charts tell me to. Hopefully no one was dumb enough to short last Thursday at open during the 52 week lows and still holding on to those shorts. Yikes.

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  • B
    Bob
    $^IXIC conversation
    Extremely bullish = Feds not thinking of doing 75 basis point hikes, and will in fact, drop back down to 25 basis point hikes should inflation come under control (i.e. China zero COVID policy and Ukraine invasion). YYUUUGGEEE technical rally, here we come.

    $SPY

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  • J
    Jon
    $^GSPC conversation
    I hope that everyone has read Chapter 1 & 2 from the book "The Intelligent Investor" on Investment vs. Speculation & Inflation. You will understand where the market currently is and what will happen in the near future with increasing inflation and eventual increase in interest rates.

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  • B
    Bob
    $SPY conversation
    Hey guys, just wondering how much you guys are up YTD or since the market crashed in late Feb. Just curious. If you're not comfortable listing a % gain/loss, you can simply note you're at a loss or a gain since (x date). We're all here to make money, so I hope you all are.

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  • B
    Bob
    $SPY conversation
    If you're new to the stock market, welcome! The sooner you learn the market cycle, the sooner you'll accept the emotional roller coaster you'll be going on. Contrary to recent popular euphoric myth, pandemics, recessions and depressions of -60% to -90% or more drops in the stock market are not strange anomalies restricted to the past only.

    https://photos.app.goo.gl/PzVLsu2afMbucPMd6

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