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The Federal Reserve will cut interest rates just twice this year, in September and December, as resilient U.S. consumer demand warrants a cautious approach despite easing inflation, according to a growing majority of economists in a Reuters poll. Declining price pressures over the past few months and recent signs of labor market weakness gave several members of the policy-setting Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) "greater confidence" inflation will return to the U.S. central bank's 2% goal without a significant economic slowdown. While all 100 economists in the July 17-23 Reuters poll said the Fed will keep rates unchanged on July 31, more than 80% - 82 of 100 - forecast the first 25-basis-point cut would come in September, pushing the federal funds rate to the 5.00%-5.25% range.
The yield on the benchmark U.S. 10-year Treasury note rose to 4.22% Monday morning. It’s tempting to say that the move is due to rising expectations of a second Donald Trump presidency, but the gain has to be put into context. The 10-year yield was hovering around 4.3% just last Thursday before the more-benign-than-expected consumer price index report raised hopes of a Federal Reserve rate cut as soon as September.
Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell has been in the news a lot lately. Last Tuesday, Powell attended a conference panel with other central bankers in Portugal. During the panel, he said he was pleased with how inflation had resumed a downtrend following the rebound at the start of the year. But also, in his best “Fedspeak,” Powell noted that it was too soon to comment on whether the Fed might be able to lower interest rates by the end of the summer. He proceeded to say, “We’ve made a lot of p