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Tech stock environment has ‘drastically changed,’ strategist says

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CFA and owner of Portia Capital Management Michelle Connell joins Yahoo Finance Live to discuss market volatility, inflation, tech stocks, Fed policy, and the outlook for investors.

影片文字紀錄

- We're seeing some green on the screen for a change today, a little bit of a rebound as equities come up a 7-week losing streak. Where should investors be looking while navigating the latest market volatility? For more on this, let's bring in Michelle Connell, CFA and owner of Portia Capital Management. Michelle, thanks for being here. So obviously people are looking somewhere because we're seeing a little bit of buying today. But as we are seeing sort of hedging going on in this environment or defensiveness, how are you approaching your equity strategy?

MICHELLE CONNELL: Probably like any other investor, I'm approaching it cautiously because we don't know how much more downside we have. It kind of feels like we're near the bottom. But maybe we have another 10% to 15% So I think it's time to start cautiously putting together a shopping list in some areas, and some of those areas that do include tech. But at the same time, I think investors still need to be protective about inflation regarding their investments and continue to build out those areas.

- And, Michelle, a lot of these names we're talking about have gotten absolutely shellacked in the tech space. Apple and Nvidia, some bigger ones. I just wonder, do you think we're in a different environment than we were the previous 12 or 13 years after the global financial crisis when we had ultra-low rates for a long period of time. The cost of capital is low.

It looks like inflation is going to be with us for a while. And then you got the Fed trying to put the brakes on things. How does all of this-- kind of paint a picture for us of how you incorporate what you expect the Fed to do and the economy to do in your models?

MICHELLE CONNELL: I expect the Fed to continue to be defensive because inflation is something that we're going to be battling for a while. The problem is that the Fed can only address the fiscal issue or the amount of money that's in the system. But at the same time, we have a supply problem, which actually was with us before the pandemic. So now we have lower supply and greater demand.

And that's going to be harder for them to handle. So we have that that we're constantly having those headwinds that will probably be in front of us for the next 12 months or so. So is it a different environment? Yes, it is. But we still have to consider that it may be an environment where we do continue to have growth, albeit shorter or smaller percentage rates of growth going forward.

- Well, and it doesn't feel like certainly it's growth at any price like it was a year ago, right. So when you're looking at growth right now, what is the lens that you're applying to the growth stocks versus-- I guess and how has that lens changed over the past year?

MICHELLE CONNELL: Well, obviously, before we went into this year, everybody just wanted growth, right. They didn't care the amount of cash flow that the company was generating. They didn't care the amount of interest rate that the company might be paying on their debt. That has drastically changed. We've done a 180. So we're more concerned about the cash flow of the underlying company. We're concerned about, how much debt do they have? And are they going to be able to renegotiate those debt levels? And what is it going to cost them? So I think investors still want growth. But they want growth at a reasonable price.

They want growth, but they also want value at the same time. And that's very different than the environment that we just went through where it was more of a momentum-based environment. So look at the cash flow. Understand the company. How much debt do they have? There's still some really good names that are out there that are growth related. And over time, growth is better during an inflation environment because those names can pass on inflation to their customers. That may not be the case for a lot of value names.

- Well, let me ask you. We got time for one more. And thinking about the value names that have done well, I think it was after the November '21 election that they first kind of took off, and a lot of them became momentum names. Certain ETFs that are geared towards a strategy of momentum we're changing and we're putting financial companies into. Now everything's kind of taking a hit this year. But value has stood up in some cases better. I'm just wondering if you like any of those names that maybe became momentum names and are more growth like in terms of their stock performance?

MICHELLE CONNELL: I'm still an investor that's growth at a reasonable price. So if it has more of a value tint to it, if it's an energy name that is looking at strong earnings and has a good solid balance sheet that does not have to go back to the capital markets, there are some good names out there. And there's some good financial names as well.

But you need to know what loan because at some point the market is not going to be a situation where everything is being sold, which is what we've gone through the past seven weeks, where the retail investor, especially, has decided just to sell everything. And that makes sense, given how much they've made in the past 12 to 18 months. But at some point, we're going to have a wash out, and people are going to become more reflective and want to have some growth in their portfolios again and have some more balance.

- Well, we'll see when that happens. Michelle Connell, good to see you. Thanks so much. CFA and owner of Portia Capital Management. Appreciate it.

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