雅虎香港財經 Taiwan Stocks See $5 Billion Outflows as AI Hype Takes Breather
(Bloomberg) -- Taiwanese stocks are set to see the largest monthly outflow in six months as concerns grow that the market’s artificial intelligence-driven rally has reached a short-term peak.
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Overseas money managers withdrew $4.9 billion from local shares in April as of Monday close, Bloomberg-compiled data show. That would be the biggest net outflow since October last year. The benchmark Taiex Index has advanced less than 1% so far in April, compared to at least 6% gains in the previous two months.
A monthslong rally in Taiwanese stocks has started to lose steam as Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. — which accounts for more than 30% of Taiex — cut its outlook for the chip market. With the US now expected to keep interest rates higher for longer, traders are also wondering whether the market’s frothy valuations can be justified.
“We’re seeing investors unwind or rebalance from some of the crowded trades out there such as AI, Taiwan and the US to other more attractive places such as Chinese markets,” said David Chao, a strategist at Invesco Asset in Singapore. “Taiwanese stocks have been pricier than their Korean counterparts and I continue to prefer Korean equities purely on a valuation basis.”
The Taiex index trades at more than 17.5 times forward earnings estimates, above the five-year average of 15. TSMC trades close to 19 times, compared to 14 for South Korea’s Samsung Electronics Co.
With Taiwan’s dominant position in the world’s chip supply chain, its stock market performance is closely linked to the global tech cycle. While TSMC options traders have been contending with a rising wave of bearishness following the chipmaker’s market outlook cut, a positive run of earnings by the “Magnificent Seven” may help reverse sentiment.
“We believe that we are still in the early stages of a multi-year tech upcycle — so there is still quite a bit of room to go for EPS upward revisions in Asian and Taiwan tech stocks,” said Gokul Hariharan, co-head of Asia Pacific technology, media and telecom research at JPMorgan Chase & Co. “As a result, we see the recent correction as more of a mid-cycle adjustment.”
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