交銀國際削農行(01288)目標價15%至3.4元 維持「買入」評級

<匯港通訊> 交銀國際發表研究報告表示，農業銀行(01288)上半年貸款增長加快，但淨息差收縮。農業銀行上半年淨利潤增長5.5%，低於首季7.4%的增長。期內收入增長 5.8%，撥備前利潤增長 4.9%。低於預期。該行將農業銀行目標價由4元下調15%至3.4元，維持「買入」評級。

報告指，農業銀行第二季度不良貸款率按季持平至 1.41%。不良貸款覆蓋率下降 2.6 個百分點至 304.9%，管理引導撥備或將穩步下降。上半年貸款同比穩健增長 14%，主要受企業貸款推動。管理層表示，7 月/8 月的貸款增加，並可能延續上升趨勢。但報告期內的淨息差收縮至 2.02%。雖然預計淨息差收縮將繼續，但鑑於下半年資產增長和成本控制較好，應該會略有改善。

該行認為，鑑於農行穩健的資產質量控制，下半年將實現穩健的盈利，將推動信貸成本的進一步下降和快於同業的貸款增長，以抵消淨息差壓力；政策引導帶動的農商貸款高速增長也將支撐其收入增長。(EC)



Agricultural Bank of China (1288 HK) - Faster loan growth, but NIM contracted - Hannah Han

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ABC reported 1H22 net profit rose 5.5% YoY, decelerating from the 7.4% growth in 1Q22. Revenue/PPOP increased 5.8%/4.9% YoY in 1H22. Lower-than-expected income tax was partly offset by higher impairment loss.

Key positives: (1) NPL ratio was flat QoQ to 1.41% in 2Q22. NPL coverage ratio fell 2.6ppts to 304.9%, and LLR/loan ratio dropped 5bps QoQ to 4.29%. Provision remained high, and management guided provision may steadily decline. (2) Solid loan growth of 14% YoY in 1H22 was mainly driven by corporate loans. Management indicated loans increased YoY in Jul/Aug, and will likely continue the upward trend.

Key negatives: (1) Reported NIM contracted to 2.02% in 1H22. Reported loan yield was ~4.23%, of which corporate loan yield dropped 8bps in 1H22. While we expect NIM contraction to continue, it should improve marginally given higher asset growth and cost control in 2H22.

Maintain Buy but cut TP to HK$3.40 (from HK$4.00): We believe ABC will deliver solid earnings in 2H22 given its robust asset quality control, which will drive further cut in credit cost and faster-than-peer loan growth to offset NIM pressure. Its high growth of rural business loans driven by policy guidance will also support its revenue growth.